Texas Population Growth and Future Energy Demand

AustinSkyline-iStockPhoto

Photo:  Austin, TX Downtown Skyline

Forbes has released their annual list of fastest-growing cities in the U.S.  For the third consecutive year in a row Austin came out on top.  The Austin metro region grew at a 2.8% clip in 2012 bringing our regional population to 1.8 million people.  Austin has been roughly doubling in size once every 20 years since its founding in 1839.  The second and third fastest-growing cities on the list were Houston and Dallas.  San Antonio came in at #9 on the list.  Texas overall added 427,000 people to the state’s population from August 2011 to July 2012 bringing our state population to 26 million.  Texas is growing at a staggering rate of more than 1,000 people per day.  With Texas metros growing at such a breakneck pace, the challenge for Texas going forward will be to keep up with our state’s future energy demand [1][2].

NSW_10ERCOT17

Photo:  ERCOT Operations Center

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state’s grid operator, recently released a study showing that Texas will struggle to keep pace with future energy demand especially during peak demand times for energy.  Peak energy demand in Texas occurs from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. during the summer months.  ERCOT’s method of tracking whether the state will be able to cover its current and future energy needs is based on a reserve margin metric.  Reserve margin is a useful tool that measures how much extra generation capacity will be available based on what the anticipated future peak energy demand will be.  ERCOT’s reserve margin goal for the Summer of 2013 is 13.75%.  However, with total generation capacity expected to be 74,633 megawatts (MW) and peak demand expected to be 65,952 MW during the Summer of 2013, ERCOT will fall short of its goal with a reserve margin of only 13.2%.  ERCOT’s reserve margin is expected to decline to 10.9% by 2014, and it will eventually fall to just 2.8% by 2022.  ERCOT’s strategy going forward will be focused on introducing new market incentives for power plant operators across the state to build new generation capacity.  ERCOT will also focus its efforts on encouraging energy conservation through demand response initiatives [3].

Energy conservation efforts such as Austin’s Pecan Street, Inc. smart grid demonstration project is a great example of how Texas’ booming metros can reduce overall peak energy demand.  Pecan Street’s smart grid demonstration project is leveraging a $10.4 million DOE grant as well as resources from the University of Texas at Austin, Austin Energy, and a consortium of industry leading high tech companies.  Pecan Street is studying the benefits of integrating rooftop solar, energy storage, electric vehicles, natural gas, smart appliances, and home energy management networks to manage peak energy demand within neighborhoods and also to help customers reduce their monthly utility bills.  Pecan Street’s smart grid demonstration project has grown to include 600 residential homes.  Lessons learned from Pecan Street’s research projects will go towards helping cities across the state and country better understand how to satisfy future energy demand when facing rapid population growth [4].

Introducing Pecan Street, Inc.

[1]  Austin is America’s fastest-growing city: http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/blog/morning_call/2013/01/austin-is-americas-fastest-growing-city.html

[2]  Forbes; “America’s Fastest Growing Cities”:  http://www.forbes.com/sites/morganbrennan/2013/01/23/americas-fastest-growing-cities/

[3]  Future electric outlook shows improvement:  http://www.ercot.com/news/press_releases/show/26358

[4]  Austin’s Pecan Street, a Smart Grid ‘City Bloc,’ Adds PV Solar and EVs:  http://www.pecanstreet.org/2011/10/austins-pecan-street-a-smart-grid-city-bloc-adds-pv-solar-and-evs/

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4 Comments

Filed under energy

4 responses to “Texas Population Growth and Future Energy Demand

  1. varund55

    Nice article. Given the fact that the temperatures in the summer can go upto a scorching 50 degree celcius do you think it is possible to harvest more energy from solar to solve the growing energy need of Texas due to its spurt in population? Thanks

  2. andtheansweriscience

    I, too, noticed the recently released Forbes top 100 fastest growing cities in America ranking. It’s refreshing to see that there’s investment in new projects here in the region with the Pecan Street gig. However, will renewables, alone, be able to keep that reverse margin substantial enough for our energy future to remain stable? Though it may not be the entire solution, I do agree that it is an integral part of it. Fast, quick, clean and accessible energy supplies are what we need now to provide the cushion in those peak-heat, unbearable summers. Nonetheless, at least for the foreseeable future, non-renewables and higher-capacity energy sources such as coal and natural gas will play a dominating factor in years ahead.

  3. acking1

    It’s frustrating that storage seems to be the bottleneck here. The biggest gripe I can think of with intermittent renewables like wind and solar is there’s no way to confidently make sure the power is there when demand calls for it. I’d put stock in whoever figures out to make the world’s best battery, that’s for sure.

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